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The Rise and Fall of Nations: Ten Rules of Change in the Post-Crisis World eBook Kindle

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Número de páginas: 480 páginas Dicas de vocabulário: Habilitado Idioma: Inglês

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The crisis of 2008 ended the illusion of a golden era in which many people imagined that prosperity and political calm would continue to spread indefinitely. In a world now racked by slowing growth and mounting unrest, how can we discern which nations will thrive and which will fail?

Shaped by prize-winning author Ruchir Sharma's twenty-five years travelling the world, The Rise and Fall of Nations rethinks economics as a practical art. By narrowing down the thousands of factors that can shape a country's future, it spells out ten clear rules for identifying the next big winners and losers in the global economy.

Each rule looks at a nation's political, economic, and social conditions in real time to filter out the hype and noise. He shows, for example, how slow population growth is eroding economic growth, and ranks nations by how well they respond. He describes the way cycles of political complacency and revolt fuel economic booms and busts. Amid growing tensions over inequality, he demonstrates how billionaire lists yield clues to which economies are most or least threatened by extreme wealth. In a period when the world is struggling with trillions of dollars in new debt, he explains which nations are most likely to avert this threat or buckle under it. Sharma's rules are based on the data he has collected over many years at Morgan Stanley Investment Management in New York, where he is now Head of Emerging Markets and Chief Global Strategist. This is a book of original research, not mere opinion.

The final chapter takes the reader on a surprising world tour of the likely winners and losers in the near future. The Rise and Fall of Nations is enlivened by Sharma's stories from the road and his encounters with presidents, tycoons, and villagers from Rio to Beijing. It is a pioneering field guide to understanding our impermanent world.

Capa Interna

The crisis of 2008 ended the illusion of a golden era in which many people imagined that prosperity and political calm would continue to spread indefinitely. In a world now racked by slowing growth and mounting unrest, how can we discern which nations will thrive and which will fail?

Shaped by prize-winning author Ruchir Sharma's twenty-five years travelling the world, The Rise and Fall of Nations rethinks economics as a practical art. By narrowing down the thousands of factors that can shape a country's future, it spells out ten clear rules for identifying the next big winners and losers in the global economy.

Each rule looks at a nation's political, economic, and social conditions in real time to filter out the hype and noise. 'People Matters' shows how slow population growth is eroding economic growth, and ranks nations by how well they respond. The 'circle of life' describes the way cycles of political complacency and revolt fuel economic booms and bust. Amid growing tensions over inequality, 'Good Billionaires, Bad Billionaires' demonstrates how billionaire lists yield clues to which economies are most or least threatened by extreme wealth. In a period when the world is struggling with trillions of dollars in new debt, the 'Kiss of Debt' explains which nations are most likely to avert this threat or buckle under it.

Together, the ten rules are instructive for anyone who wants to know which nations are most likely to rise or fall in our own time. The final chapter takes the reader on a surprising world tour of the likely winners and losers in the near future. Enlivened by Sharma's encounters with presidents, tycoons, and villagers from Rio to Beijing, this book is a pioneering field guide to understanding our impermanent world.

Detalhes do produto

  • Formato: eBook Kindle
  • Tamanho do arquivo: 3635 KB
  • Número de páginas: 480 páginas
  • Editora: Allen Lane (20 de julho de 2016)
  • Vendido por: Amazon Servicos de Varejo do Brasil Ltda
  • Idioma: Inglês
  • ASIN: B01C3NCZSG
  • Leitura de texto: Habilitado
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  • Dicas de vocabulário: Habilitado
  • Configuração de fonte: Não habilitado
  • Avaliação média: 5.0 de 5 estrelas 1 avaliação de cliente
  • Lista de mais vendidos da Amazon: #5,492 entre os mais vendidos na Loja Kindle (Conheça os 100 mais vendidos na Loja Kindle)

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Livro perfeito para entender a dinâmica da economia globalizada dos países e suas interdependências, sob a interferência geo-política que tão bem é analisada pelo Ruchir Sharma. 5 estrelas com certeza !!!
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Amazon.com: 4.4 de 5 estrelas 82 avaliações
Esta avaliação foi considerada útil por 10 de 10 pessoa(s):
5.0 de 5 estrelas The 21st Century Mobius 17 de julho de 2016
Por Dilbert - Publicada na Amazon.com
Formato: Capa dura Compra verificada
As one of Mr. Sharma's competitors (an institutional EM manager), I found his latest book to be spot on and immensely readable. He breaks down his rules of thumb for emerging market investing into simple language with many practical examples from his own experience. His book is similar to some of Mark Mobius' books, but without the endless self promotion that made Mobius' books difficult to read. I think anyone from a total investing novice to sophisticated institutional investor could pick this book up and learn something new.

Two of Sharma's most important points were the "Circle of Life" and "Kiss of Debt" chapters. He very correctly points out that politicians who start out on a promising, reform driven path -- such as Putin in Russia, Edrogan in Turkey, and even Mugabe in Zimbabwe -- tend to become corrupt and terrible for economic growth after ten years. What's great now often turns rotten over the long term; this is a theme which recurs in his book.

The Kiss of Debt chapter is more relevant in the post-financial crisis environment. While it seems common sense, Sharma's research shows that countries in which debt grows at rates greatly exceeding GDP growth tend to experience a period of very low growth in subsequent years. The most pertinent example today: China. However, there are some other less-recognized examples including Turkey.

Sharma does a great job of integrating historical examples, statistics, and his own personal ground-level observations into a relatively succinct book. This was a great sequel to his Breakout Nations book and I hope he continues to publish his thoughts.
Esta avaliação foi considerada útil por 5 de 5 pessoa(s):
4.0 de 5 estrelas Seeking to Time the Constant Boom and Bust of Economies 7 de agosto de 2016
Por bill greene - Publicada na Amazon.com
Formato: Capa dura Compra verificada
There are many strong points in this book and it is well worth reading for those interested in what makes a nation prosper. Mr. Sharma, an investment analyst on Wall Street, focuses on the short-term swings in the many world’s economies, with the objective of timing his firm’s investment in nations that are about to Rise and a timely dis-investment when they are about to Fall. Thus, his idea of Rise and Fall is not the historian’s which looks at long-term growth over hundreds of years. His analysis is centered on the fundamental lack of permanency of most nation’s economies.

The author relates a fascinating story, covering a hundred or more nations, over the last 50 years, and how almost all the countries have been buffeted by repeated and violent booms and busts, with little persistent increases in well-being--since 1970 there have been five worldwide recessions, he reports, and they have all started in the United States, and they have decimated the fortunes of most of the world’s poorer nations.
The author points a finger at the “easy money pouring out of Western banks” as fuel adding to a rapid expansion and a resulting bust. He describes how the lack of financial regulation on banks and the 2008 mortgage/financial melt-down on Wall Street ended the period of rapid worldwide growth and reversed the fortunes of all emerging economies. In a time when everyone wants to aid the Third World countries, it is useful to reflect on how the speculative and corrupt practices on Wall Street undid all the good that may have come from the foreign aid and assistance given to the undeveloped nations. Sharma explains, that if the boom had been moderated, and the bust avoided, the average incomes of the emerging nations would have soon caught up with those of the rich nations.

The ten factors that the author relies on to identify a growing economy are: Whether the size of the workforce is increasing; Is the geography favorable; Are there significant investment in factories; The amount of inflation; The Level of Debt; The number and nature of billionaires and corruption; whether the currency value is high or low; the degree of support vs interference by the government; the degree of income inequality; and the persistence of growth. Many of these factors are the same as measured each year by the various “Indices of Economic Freedom” published by the Heritage Society and the Fraser Institute. Thus, Sharma supports the conservative philosophy that a nation’s is largely dependent on a growing workforce, moderate debt, low inflation, minimal government regulation, and avoidance of high inequality. He lists the very few “miracle economies” that have managed to offer these supports over an extended period and thereby gain decades of sustained growth: Korea, Taiwan, China, and Singapore. The others usually fall victim to swings between reform and populism with its excess regulation, wild spending, low investment, and corruption. Indeed, America itself is becoming more subject to such destructive tendencies..

Sharma’s earlier book, “Break out Nations,” is very similar to this one, and also indicates that to be successful, a nation must maintain order, minimize debt, minimize corruption, balance the budget, and go easy on burdensome regulations that suppress business activity. A weakness in both books is that there is little attention given to the importance of the nature and attitude of a people or their culture. For an interesting example of how culture and the composition of a population impacts economic success, I recommend “Start-up Nation, The Story of Israel’s Economic Miracle” by Damon Senor and Saul Singer. Sharma mentions Israel in only two small paragraphs, acknowledging their transformation into a technical powerhouse over the last 40 years, but with no discussion of why that happened and persisted so long. It is likely that some populations and cultures are less prone to swing into orgies of populism and the uncontrolled spending that creates the boom and bust scenarios which preclude extended rises in prosperity.
The book provides much raw data on demographic trends and stresses the need for population growth. With birth rates down in most of the established economies, he seems to favor immigration as the answer but makes no mention of good vs bad immigration. There is no reference to immigration policies such as used in Norway, Israel, and Switzerland that restrict admission to desirable merit-based applicants. Similarly, the author stresses the need for a growing workforce but pays scant attention to the percentage of people in the workforce. The shortage of workers is not just caused by birth rates, but also by the number of people dropping out of the workforce. Last month, the Congressional Budget Office projected that the American labor force participation rate will decline from about 63 percent in 2017 to around 58 percent in 2046. The report indicates that if the participation rate is 61 percent in 2046, the resulting higher gross domestic product would lead to more revenues, higher interest rates, smaller budget deficits, and less federal debt. But if the participation rate drops to 55 percent in 2046, the resulting slower economic growth would create larger budget deficits and more debt. Consideration of these variables, and their causes, would have helped provide useful solutions to our economic problems.
Esta avaliação foi considerada útil por 19 de 21 pessoa(s):
5.0 de 5 estrelas A practical guide to understanding the economies of the world. 30 de junho de 2016
Por Graham M. Flower - Publicada na Amazon.com
Formato: Capa dura Compra verificada
I read books very much along this line partly because I am just interested in world comparisons and partly because I work in a high tech business where the supply lines are spread over numerous countries. I work in a technology group with 22 engineers and scientists and I'm the only one born in the USA and my colleagues often share some of their observations on regions of the world.

That said, I've read several books of a similar genre and this is the best of them. Mr Sharma shares lots of interesting facts with us which you can get a good sense of from the review by Mr Loyd E.

The book has 11 chapters. Each of the first 10 discusses a subject of analysis that he performs on the various countries and he basically maps out how he thinks about each of these and gives some examples. The methods are not difficult to understand and are very full of fairly practical wisdom. The 11th chapter he basically summarizes his feeling about the prospects of various countries over the next 5 years. He is careful to note that he's only making projections for the next 5 years or so as things can change based upon world developments or leadership changes.

Although Ruchir's focus is on emerging market countries there are plenty of statements made relating to G7 or G20 countries. You get a pretty good feeling for which areas of the world are likely to make real economic progress and which ones are likely to slip.
Esta avaliação foi considerada útil por 1 de 1 pessoa(s):
5.0 de 5 estrelas Ten rules are presented to find winners and losers in the global ecomomy, according to principles of international economics 30 de março de 2017
Por A Concerned Citizen - Publicada na Amazon.com
Formato: Capa dura Compra verificada
The Rise and Fall of Nations: Forces of Change in the Post-Crisis World. Ruchir Sharma. 2016.

Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets and chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, spent 25 years traveling to analyze the economies of the world for investment. As an unsentimental businessman, he presents ten rules, each with its own chapter, to use in identifying the next big winners and losers in the global economy.

1. People Matter: Is the talent pool growing? The portion of working age people (15-65) who drive the economy is decreasing, while the portion of nonproductive older people is increasing. Births per woman have decreased globally from 4.9 to 2.5, even in India and Mexico. The fertility rate is actually less than the replacement rate of 2.1 in 83 countries. Immigration has partly offset this problem in some developed countries. Automation may actually be important to counter workforce shortages, although it is viewed as a threat to jobs (47% at risk in the US in one to two decades).

2. The Circle of Life: Particularly in developing countries, bold new leaders often have early successes from reform followed by staleness and corruption. Many examples of this pattern are reviewed, such as Putin in Russia, Erdogan in Turkey, Suharto in Indonesia, and Mohamad in Malaysia. Vladimir Putin’s election to the presidency in 2000 led to reforms that increased average Russian annual salaries from $2,000 to $12,000, but by 2008, increasing demagoguery and corruption initiated falling average income to $8,000, negative growth, 16% inflation, and billionaire oligarchs. Even worse, populists without reform arise in some countries, such as Chavez in Venezuela and Kirchner in Argentina.

3. Good Billionaires, Bad Billionaires: “Low levels of inequality fuel long runs of strong economic growth, and….high or rapidly rising inequality can prematurely snuff out growth.” Inequality is presently very high and getting higher. In 2014, the top 1% had 48% of global wealth. The number of billionaires has doubled in the last 5 years and tripled in the last 10. Good billionaires make positive contributions to productivity and have fewer corrupt ties to government. Bad billionaires in rent seeking industries like construction, real estate, gambling, mining, metals, oil, and gas compete for access to national wealth and may be tied to government corruption. Russia has by far the largest portion of bad billionaires at 70%.

4. Perils of the State: The checklist for governments includes the following: 1) the level of government spending, 2) misuse of state companies and banks, 3) activities that are either choking or encouraging private business. For spending in developed nations, France tops the list with 57%, followed by Sweden, Finland, Belgium, Denmark, and Italy with around 50%. For spending in developing nations, Russia probably tops the list at close to 50% (official figures claim only 36%), followed by Brazil, Argentina, Poland, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey with 41-35%. Too much spending may include lavish subsidies, wasteful state corporations, and other inefficiencies. Too little spending may include inadequately funded law enforcement, large black markets, and civil war. Reportedly, China’s recent stimulus to maintain unrealistically high growth targets has generated $6.8 trillion in wasted investment, including a great deal of empty real-estate.

5. The Geographic Sweet Spot: Nations that qualify as geographic sweet spots combine the pure luck of an advantageous location for trade with the good sense to make the most of it. For the largest emerging nations, combined import and export trade account for 70% of GDP. Profitability from proximity has occurred between Dubai and Iran, Hong Kong and China, Eastern Europe and Western Europe, Southeast Asia and the US, and Mexico and the US. To benefit from their locations, countries must open their borders to trade with their neighbors, the wider world, and their own provinces and second cities.

6. Factories First: Is investment rising or falling as a share of the economy? For emerging countries, investments are optimal at 25-35% of GDP and weak at 20% or less. For developed countries, investments average only about 20% of GDP. Investment becomes increasingly nonproductive above about 35% and results in slower economic growth. This is particularly concerning for China, where investments have grown to 47% of GDP to maintain unrealistic growth targets. It is becoming tougher for developing nations to get into manufacturing due to shrinkage from 24% to 18% of global GDP since 1980 and other structural reasons. Also, for developing countries, the rise of service industries has been insufficient to drive mass modernization, even for India’s IT services, which employ less than 1% of the workforce.

7. The Price of Onions: Is inflation high or low? In the postwar era, low inflation has been a hallmark of every long run of strong economic growth. South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and China had booms lasting three decades or more and rarely saw inflation at greater than the emerging-world average. After 1933, rising inflation peaked at 15% in 1974 then fell to 2% since 1991 for developed countries and peaked at a staggering 87% in 1994 then fell to 6% since 2002 for developing countries. Inflation was tamed largely by the rise of politically independent central banks that enforce inflation targets of around 2%. Bad extensive deflation has been rare after World War II, with exceptions in Hong Kong and Japan. Deflation may be good, such as in the English industrial revolution when prices fell by half and output rose sevenfold and in the digital revolution when prices plummeted as quality skyrocketed.

8. Cheap is Good: Does the country feel cheap or expensive? An overpriced currency will encourage locals and foreigners to move money out of a country and sap its economic growth. A currency that feels cheap will draw money into a country and boost its economic growth. The critical category to watch is the current account, which captures how much a nation is producing compared to how much it is consuming. This consists of the trade balance (exports minus imports) plus other currency flows. A country with a current account deficit of 5% for five years is highly likely to have a significant slowdown and some kind of crisis. To predict changes, watch whether the locals are moving money into or out of the country, including by illicit channels. China is the leading exporter of illicit capital at $125 billion per year until 2013, increasing to an annual rate of $320 billion at the beginning of 2015—an alarming sign. Overpriced currency may lead to collapse, crisis, and contagion to other emerging countries.

9. The Kiss of Debt: Is debt growing faster or slower than the economy? Economic slowdowns and financial crises are most often preceded by excessive growth of private debt (companies and individuals) not government debt. Eventually, some financial accident occurs, typically after the central bank is forced to raise interest rates, and the bubble bursts. Subsequently government debt increases due to decreased tax revenues, increased public safety net spending, and shifting of bad debt to government books. The magic number for spotting coming trouble is a five year increase in private credit of 40% as a share of GDP (or 20% per year). The most alarming credit binge is in China, with a record 80% five-year increase of private debt by 2013 with associated real-estate and stock market bubbles. Failure to reverse course could result in an outcome like that of Japan, where growth was stagnant for two decades and total debt increased from 250% of GDP in 1990 to 400% today.

10. The Hype Watch: How is the country portrayed by global opinion makers? The basic rule: the global media’s love is a bad sign, and its indifference is a good one. Studies of the covers Time and other publications show that economic growth is more likely to slow when the story is upbeat and more likely to rise when it is downbeat. Trends are often near the ends of their runs by the time they come to the attention of the media. Mainstream opinion tends to extrapolate recent trends into the unknowable future. Rapid “catch-up” growth of poor economies is likely to slow when per capita GDP reaches 75% of that of the US.

11. The Good, the Average, and the Ugly—Summary. For three decades before 2008, global economic annual growth was 3.5%. However, the future potential growth rate is estimated to be limited to 2.5% due to structural changes of depopulation, deglobalization, and the need for deleveraging. Although the post 2008 recovery has been weak, recovery in the US has been stronger than in most developing nations and needs to be judged by the new standards. The “kiss of debt” rule of growth of debt by over 40% of GDP in five years is the single most reliable indicator of a coming major economic slowdown. China’s economic growth prospects now rank among the ugliest in the emerging world. Selected countries are listed below according to the author’s view of their economic prospects:

Good: US, Germany, India, Mexico, Peru, Argentina, Poland, Romania, Pakistan, Vietnam, and the Philippines.

Average: Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, UK, Spain, Italy, Czech Republic, Hungary, Kenya, Sri Lanka, and Columbia.

Ugly: China, Russia, France, Turkey, Canada, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, South Africa, Thailand, Malaysia, and Australia.
Esta avaliação foi considerada útil por 10 de 11 pessoa(s):
5.0 de 5 estrelas Absolutely amazing book. Read it, much more informative and insightful than economic news 13 de junho de 2016
Por Jacek M. - Publicada na Amazon.com
Formato: Capa dura Compra verificada
Absolutely amazing book analyzing case studies of countries and economic forces shaping them. Identifies positive trends and cautionary stories. Full of examples, but deeply rooted in data.
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