- Capa comum: 463 páginas
- Editora: Princeton University Press; Edição: Reprint (7 de setembro de 2011)
- Idioma: Inglês
- ISBN-10: 0691152640
- ISBN-13: 978-0691152646
- Dimensões do produto: 3,8 x 14 x 21,6 cm
- Peso do produto: 499 g
- Avaliação média: 1 avaliação de cliente
- Lista de mais vendidos da Amazon: no. 47,616 em Livros (Conheça o Top 100 na categoria Livros)
This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Inglês) Capa Comum – 6 set 2011
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"This Time Is Different is a tremendously exciting, topical, and controversial book on the history of debt and default. This one belongs on everyone's shelf."--Barry Eichengreen, author of The European Economy since 1945
"This is quite simply the best empirical investigation of financial crises ever published. Covering hundreds of years and bringing together a dizzying array of data, Reinhart and Rogoff have made a truly heroic contribution to financial history. This single marvelous volume is worth a thousand mathematical models."--Niall Ferguson, author of The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World
"This Time is Different is terrific, for it gives just the perspective we need on the current world economic crisis. People can't expect to understand the current crisis without some in-depth look at past crises. That is exactly what this excellent and timely book provides."--Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance and coauthor of Animal Spirits
"You will be hard-pressed to find a more comprehensive and insightful analysis of financial crises. Reinhart and Rogoff's superb book is a must-read for anyone looking to understand past and present crises, as well as navigate those of tomorrow."--Mohamed El-Erian, author of When Markets Collide
"I would say that her [Carmen Reinhart's] book with Ken Rogoff on debt crises and financial crises is an extraordinary piece of work."--Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, speaking before the House Budget Committee (6/9/2010)
"The most important authorities probably in the world now on financial crashes are Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart. . . . And I read it [This Time is Different]."--Former President Bill Clinton, speech at Youngstown, OH, October 31, 2012
"A classic."--Nouriel Roubini
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This book was written before their deification by pro-austerity, less-compassionate politicians. This book lays out the data and the small empirically based “aha's”, which investors can use to practical results. And their successful effort in this book is enormous, teasing out reliable historical data, never found before, especially from the Third World. Never underestimate the power of details. I admire this book completely for its precision. And the conclusion I can draw: Caveat Emptor. The future rhymes with the past. Do not confuse causation and correlation.
The real point of the authors, is that every era thinks "This Time Is Different" and the truth is almost always otherwise. Debt, deficits, and default have been recurring themes throughout human history. They have happened many times before. They will happen many times again. The countries you think will never default, frequently do. Germany is generally regarded as one of the safest creditors in the world (these days). German history suggests otherwise. Greece has been in ruins (economic ruins) for almost 200 years.
The idea that Greece was ever a reasonable credit risk was (is) absurd. Yet, Greece could borrow at rock bottom interest rates for years after it joined the Euro system. Even now, Europe's leaders are trying to prevent a final default (wipe out) on Greek debt. History says that they will lose.
I had hoped to derive useful insights for investing. I have read other books - The Big Short, Dying of Money, Lords of Finance, etc. - with this same purpose. However, while I was greatly impressed with the authors' effort and commitment, the main lesson that I drew from the book is that financial distress is quite common and recovery from it can be painful and lengthy. I expect our recovery to be so.
The book may aid an investor if one invests overseas. The historical tendencies of individual countries may be of some use. An investor may avoid some countries because of their financial history. For instance, if one loans money to Argentina or Greece with an expectation of repayment, you are quite likely to get what you deserve.
The book notes that inflation is one common political response to national financial distress. Indeed, I have read a blog by Professor Rogoff observing that the United States' current overcommitted financial circumstances might be eased by inflation. This, too, probably lies in our future. The book, Dying of Money, about the German hyperinflation of the 1920's may provide some practical guidance on this point.
2. In the sense that the authors' discussions and conclusions are well researched, this book is scholarly. It is not light reading, although the intelligent lay reader will do fine.
3. The authors have a sense of humor, which makes reading this book a little easier. Their humor starts with the title of the book, which is not to be taken literally.
4. With the various forms of financial crisis present in many parts of the world, the book is clearly topical.
5. The main part of the book, which is only about 290 pages, can be read and understood in a reasonable amount of time.
6. The book's charts and tables distill a lot of information into relatively short spaces. The charts and tables are imbedded into the main text and into detailed, separate data appendixes.
7. The book does not promote simplistic, one size fits all, solutions. The economic world, after all, is complicated.
8. The roots of the present lie deep in the past. An understanding of the common problems and policy mistakes of earlier financial crises can help citizens and policymakers make better policy choices.
9. The book is blessedly non-partisan.
10. It is too early to tell for sure, but I suspect that this book, alongside works that have stood the test of time, will become a classic in the field of financial crises.
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